Source: The Economic
Cost of War in Sri Lanka, Institute of Policy Studies, Jan.
2000, Colombo, Sri Lanka
- Table1: Defense Expenditure
1982 - 1996 (Selected Years)
- Table
2: Effect of Military Expenditure on GDP
- Table
3: Compounded Present Value (1996) of Estimated Cost
of the War, 1984 - 1996 (Mn. of 1996 Rs.)1
Table
1
| |
1982 |
1983 |
1985 |
1988 |
1990 |
1993 |
1994 |
1995 |
1996 |
| Defense
expenditure as a % of total government expenditure |
3.1 |
4.4 |
10.2 |
14.3 |
14.6 |
14.7 |
15.2 |
18.1 |
21.6 |
|
Defense Budget as a % of GDP |
1.1 |
1.4 |
3.5 |
4.8 |
4.5 |
4.2 |
4.4 |
5.4 |
6.0 |
Sources:
Central Bank of Sri Lanka. Review of the Economy and Annual
Report, various issues.
Table 2
|
Year |
Govt. Military Expenditure
(GM) (%GDP) |
Effect of GM on Public
Investment (% GDP) |
Using Marginal Product
of Investment on GDP |
Using Average Product
of Investment on GDP |
|
Drop in GDP Growth
Rate (%) |
Estimated Lost GDP |
ICOR |
Drop in GDP Growth
Rate (%) |
Estimated Lost GDP |
| Rs.
Mn (1996) |
(Per
cent GDP) |
Rs.
Mn (1996) |
(Per
cent GDP) |
| 1984 |
1.61 |
-0.79 |
0.07 |
283 |
0.07 |
5.11 |
0.15 |
615 |
0.15 |
| 1985 |
3.46 |
-5.21 |
0.47 |
1,956 |
0.45 |
4.81 |
1.08 |
4,527 |
1.03 |
| 1986 |
5.41 |
-9.90 |
0.89 |
3,913 |
0.86 |
5.53 |
1.79 |
7,913 |
1.73 |
| 1987 |
5.79 |
-10.81 |
0.97 |
4,476 |
0.97 |
16.05 |
0.67 |
3,125 |
0.68 |
| 1988 |
4.83 |
-8.51 |
0.77 |
3,579 |
0.75 |
8.44 |
1.01 |
4,697 |
0.99 |
| 1989 |
3.49 |
-5.30 |
0.48 |
2,282 |
0.47 |
9.65 |
0.55 |
2,633 |
0.54 |
| 1990 |
4.54 |
-7.81 |
0.70 |
3,431 |
0.67 |
3.60 |
2.17 |
10,607 |
2.06 |
| 1991 |
4.21 |
-7.01 |
0.63 |
3,279 |
0.61 |
4.96 |
1.41 |
7,448 |
1.38 |
| 1992 |
4.23 |
-7.07 |
0.64 |
3,457 |
0.61 |
5.67 |
1.25 |
6,824 |
1.21 |
| 1993 |
4.16 |
-6.90 |
0.62 |
3,518 |
0.58 |
3.68 |
1.88 |
10,687 |
1.78 |
| 1994 |
4.41 |
-7.50 |
0.67 |
4,086 |
0.64 |
4.80 |
1.56 |
9,565 |
1.50 |
| 1995 |
5.24 |
-9.49 |
0.85 |
5,464 |
0.81 |
4.72 |
2.01 |
12,974 |
1.94 |
| 1996 |
6.02 |
-11.37 |
1.02 |
6,915 |
0.99 |
6.45 |
1.76 |
12,045 |
1.73 |
Sources: Central
Bank of Sri Lanka, Annual Report, various issues, calculated
Table 31
| |
Interest
rate |
|
r = 0.00 |
r = 0.05 |
r = 0.10 |
Direct Costs
Direct government military expenditure
|
224,148
32.2% |
287,543
41.3% |
375,466
54.0% |
LTTE military expenditure
|
22,415
3.2% |
28,754
4.1% |
37,547
5.4% |
|
Government expenditure on relief services2 |
20,742
3.0% |
20,742
3.0% |
20,742
3.0% |
Cost of lost Infrastructure2,3
|
93,584
13.5% |
93,584
13.5% |
93,584
13.5% |
| |
|
|
|
Indirect Costs
Lost income due to foregone public investment |
46,639
6.70% |
59,884
8.61% |
78,263
11.25% |
Lost income from reduced tourist arrivals
|
91,832
13.2% |
118,365
17.0% |
155,323
22.3% |
|
Lost earning due to lost foreign investment |
423,446
60.9% |
495,252
71.2% |
588,897
84.7% |
Lost income due to displacement (up to 1995)
|
29,784
4.3% |
38,219
5.5% |
49,417
7.1% |
Lost income due to lost human capital of dead or
injured persons4 |
14,641
2.1% |
17,229
2.5% |
20,875
3.0% |
Output foregone in the Northern Province in 19965
|
9,031
1.3% |
9,031
1.3% |
9,031
1.3% |
| Total |
976,261
140.3% |
1,168,603
168.0% |
1,429,144
205.4% |
Notes:
1. Values as a % of GDP are given in italics
2. Due to lack of yearly data, values given in last two columns
are not compounded
3. This includes rehabilitation and reconstruction in the
North and the East up to 1995 (85,034), infrastructure in
the greater Colombo area up to 1996 (4,500), damages to houses
in Jaffna in 1996 (4,050).
4. Income could also have been lost due to "brain-drain";
however, because of data problems this cost is not included
in the calculation.
5. Cost of damages on top of damages to houses.
|
Sri
Lanka: Cost of War